The PP march launched in Andalusia three weeks before the regional elections. The popular ones can aspire to a great victory, of sufficient magnitude to overcome the entire left in seats by themselves and revalidate the regional government without the need to add Vox, according to a 40 dB survey. for the diary The country of Spain and the Being Chain.
Andalusian regional elections will be held on June 19after the president of the Board, Juanma Moreno (PP), decided to advance the elections a few months.
In the previous ones, on December 2, 2018, the collapse of the PSOE of Susana Díaz and the irruption of Vox in the regional Parliament with 12 deputies turned the political map upside down in a community governed until then by the socialists.
The PSOE, the demoscopic study points out, would stagnate in its result of four years ago, the groups further to the left would pay for their division and Citizens would once again precipitate into extra-parliamentary irrelevance. Vox confirms its ascending line, but it would not bring it much benefit in the face of the spectacular growth of the popular ones.
The president of the Andalusian Government, Juanma Moreno, in 2019. Photo EFE
grow in votes
The PP, according to the survey, would climb to 36.5%, 16 points more than in 2018, practically what Ciudadanos loses, which would go from 18% then to a tiny 3%. The popular would gather 48 seats, 22 more than in the outgoing Parliament. That harvest should be enough for the PP to govern alone, even without reaching an absolute majority of 55 deputies.
The popular ones would surpass in five parliamentarians the sum of the left, with which Vox could only block the re-election of the president Juanma Moreno joining the predictable front of rejection of the progressive field.
If the popular ones culminated on June 19 this historic turnaround in the great fiefdom of the Spanish left during the last four decades, it would be largely thanks to the citizen approval that the management of the Board and its president arouse.
According to reports The countryMoreno is preferred to lead the autonomous government by 36.5% of those surveyed, while the socialist Juan Espadas does not reach 10%.
The popular candidate is even singled out as the best president by 20% of socialist voters. To the point that the poll detects that the PP could collect a considerable 10% of votes that previously belonged to the PSOE.
The same thing happens with the assessment of the Government of the Board. 46% consider it good or very good, a rating that also gives it a fifth of the socialist electorate and 12% of those of Adelante Andalucía, the left-wing regionalist formation headed by Teresa Rodríguez.
The contrast with the image of the central government is resounding: the Executive of Pedro Sánchez is only approved by 24% and receives a rejection of more than 45%.
The President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez with a low image in Andalusia. Photo EFE
Party or candidate?
Has Andalusia turned to the right or is it rather a personal success of Moreno and his team?
The great influence of the latter is also evident in the classification of sympathy by party, in which the PSOE resists in the first place, with 19.5%. But the PP almost equals him and the sum of sympathies for ideological blocs gives the left an advantage of only three points.
In the political self-location of Andalusians, the average has only a slight slant towards the center-left (4.82 on a scale where 0 would be the extreme left and 10 the extreme right).
Research 40dB. points out that the socialist Espadas may suffer to match the results of Susana Díaz in 2018. Although he would keep his 33 deputies, would give up two points, going from 28% to 26%.
In the previous elections, the Socialists surpassed the PP in eight points and now they would be ten below. The PSOE would have room for improvement in the three weeks remaining for 19-J if it manages to agitate part of its electorate, the most demobilized. Only 64.5% of the previous socialist voters say that they will go to the polls for sure, almost 10 points less than among the faithful of the PP.
The growth that the survey attributes to Vox is not negligible. It increases five points, up to 16.5%, and goes from 12 to 18 seats. Another thing is that his political role could be diluted by the magnitude of the eventual victory of the PP.