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Why do shooting incidents increase in America in summer? Read what experts say

A photo of the aftermath of the Texas school massacre (file photo)


Many unreported shootings, from the Texas school massacre to the Tulsa hospital shootings, reflect a trend of shootings across America. In these hot weather, criminal incidents increase. Administrative officers have also been saying this thing for a long time. Few reports have been written recently on the exact relationship between temperature and crime rate. Whereas, criminologists have been writing in this regard for years.


Climate change is an important cause

David Hemenway, a professor of health policy at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, who researched the subject, told AFP: “It’s hard to shoot someone if no one is around. Is.” A second, more controversial view is that the summer season encourages people to venture outside, which may increase such incidents.” Although there may be many other reasons for the rise in US shootings, climate change can be considered an important reason.

Hemenway said he was interested in the relationship between heat and excess crime, given the longstanding stereotypes about the north-south divide between the United States and Italy, as well as the northern European states of Scandinavia and southern Mediterranean countries. In 2020, led by his then graduate student Paul Reaping, he co-authored a paper on the shooting incidents in the city of Chicago between 2012 and 2016.

More events happen at the end of the week

Writing the paper used the Chicago Tribune report to obtain the number of shots fired per day, and then matched that with daily high temperatures, humidity, wind speeds, temperature differences from historical averages, and the type and amount of precipitation. . They found that there were 34 percent more shootings on weekdays with 10°C higher temperatures and 42 percent more shootings on weekends or holidays. They also found that there was a 33.8 percent higher incidence of shooting when the average temperature was 10 degrees Celsius above.

It’s not just the heat that’s important, Hemenway said, but the relative heat. There are more shootings in the winter on days that are not hot in the summer, but warm for the winter.” At the same time, another researcher found that violent crimes are more frequent in the warmer months, especially from May to September. Criminal incidents are less in the months of October to April.

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