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War tactics in Ukraine before the arrival of ‘captain winter’: recover Kherson, the immediate objective

The war in Ukraine entered a complex tactical phase with two armies fixed in an unproductive head-to-headwith kyiv determined to recapture the Russian-occupied city of Kherson in the south of the country and the approaching winter.

the ukrainian army launched a broad counteroffensive at the end of August to retake the city of Kherson (south), occupied in early March by the Kremlin army, shortly after the start of the invasion.

An operation full of uncertainty, the result of which will be very important at the operational and symbolic level.

After some minor counter-offensives, the Ukrainian military sees this as a key asset. Kherson, with 280,000 inhabitants before the war, is surrounded by two million arable hectares.

This also close to the Black Sea and Crimeaoccupied by the Russians since 2014.




Ukrainian military in the Donetsk region. Reuters Photo

The strategy

In case of success, “We will begin to see medium-range missiles fall frequently on Sevastopol and all of Crimea”Retired Gen. Ben Hodges, former commander of US forces in Europe, told a security forum at the New Strategy Center in Bucharest last weekend.

Also in Bucharest, Mykhailo Samus, director of the Ukrainian New Geopolitics Research Network, mentioned the need to destroy “Russian command and control posts, logistics lines, ammunition depots, electronic warfare capabilities and major military infrastructure.”

Ukraine had announced several weeks ago his intention to retake Kherson. Phillips O’Brien, professor of strategic studies at the Scottish University of Saint Andrews, believes that kyiv wants to fix the enemy forces there.

“Now it’s a matter of wear and tear and logistics,” he says on his Twitter account. Having lured Russian forces into the area, “the Ukrainians are trying to destroy them.”

Ukraine had announced several weeks ago its intention to retake Kherson.  Reuters Photo


Ukraine had announced several weeks ago its intention to retake Kherson. Reuters photo

The front is situated on the Dniepr River, which flows on the eastern flank of the city. Ukraine does not want to bomb itthen try to cut off the occupant from his logistical support in the east by destroying the bridges.

Without them to provision, the Russians will have to use ferries or an airlift, Phillips O’Brien stressed. “That can work for a few days and weeks, but no longer,” he says.

Michael Kofman, from the US think tank CNA confirms this. The Ukrainians “want to force the Russian forces to the other side of the river and make their positions untenable.”

The climatic context is important. Winter will mistreat men and equipment and snow and ice will complicate travel.

“Winter is an obstacle for everyone,” Alexander Grinberg of the Jerusalem Institute for Security and Strategy (JISS) told AFP.

what do the russians say

The expert points out that the attackers, the Ukrainians, no longer have the numerical superiority necessary to dislodge the attacker.

Russian analysts consider its success unthinkable. “They hit the Russian defense at some points, but they stalled (…). It is unlikely that they will be able to advance to Kherson,” Vassily Kashin, a researcher at Moscow’s HSE University, told AFP.

At the same time, on the borders of Donbas, the front continues to stall.  Photo EFE


At the same time, on the borders of Donbas, the front continues to stall. Photo EFE

Alexandre Khramchikhin, an independent Russian military expert, does not see where “they will find technical resources” and fast. “What you see now is a classic war of attrition. And it will be Ukraine that will tire first.”he thinks

At the same time, on the borders of Donbas, the front continues to stall. The bombardments are constant, the fighting fierce, but one day’s gains are lost the next.

This freeze “benefits Russia”, assures Vassily Kashin. “Ukrainian troops are trapped in a restricted terrain, which receives hits from Russian artillery and aircraft…,” he maintains.

No precise and reliable figure is available on Russian and Ukrainian losses.

what’s coming

Ivan Klyszcz, a researcher at the Estonian University of Tartu, describes a status quo favorable to Russiathat he can “consolidate his power over the occupied territories and improve his supply lines”.

The Russians are also convinced that they will win the battle of time.

With the impasse in front, “Russia will continue to destroy the Ukrainian army and economy. That is the current main objective and not new territorial conquests,” says Kashin.

For a long time no one has doubted that the conflict will be long. “What if the war lasts beyond 2023? It is easier to predict the situation until this winter than if it lasts until the next one,” warns Michael Kofman.

Then the economic situation of the warring parties will come into consideration: a bombed-out Ukraine and a Russia under Western sanctions. The economic crisis in the West it will also end up affecting public opinion and support for kyiv.

From this point of view, the battle of Kherson will have an important symbolic value, maintains Ivan Klyszcz.

“The most important thing kyiv can achieve is show that you can gain ground in combat,” he says.

And that has “consequences for how the war effort is perceived at home and abroad.”

AFP Agency

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