The top expert on Russian issues, Marx Galeotti, explained to the newspaper La Repubblica what NATO’s retaliation would be. The details.
Vladimir Putin has continually reiterated his threats to use tactical nuclear bombs, less powerful but effective in a theater of war. In that case, how would NATO, the Western military alliance, respond?
The fascinating and terrible question was asked by the correspondent of “La Repubblica de Roma, Antonello Guerrera, to one of the most prestigious specialists on Britain’s defense issues, Professor Marx Galeottiprofessor at University College London, top expert on Russian issueswho has written more than twenty books on the subject.
“With devastating non-nuclear strikes against Russian targets,” Galeotti replied. “For example against the warships of the Russian fleet in the Baltic Sea. Or blocking and attacking the enclave of Kaliningrad”.
an open war
“Certainly we would not see NATO troops marching on Moscow, but an open war would start between the two blocks.
Professor Galeotti believes that “at this point the West will do everything to bring about regime change in the Kremlin. Putin would have done Too dangerous and it would be necessary remove it or remove it, at all costs. Also the Russian elites know it well”.
Kaliningrad is a very dangerous Russian enclave for the West in a crisis of the current magnitude. Stalin managed after the Second World War that the allies awarded him as spoils of war this enclave in old German Prussia, which lacks a land connection to Russia.
But there they work at least three missile and nuclear bomb bases that can reach major Western European cities and strategic targets.
Suffice it to say that with hypersonic missiles, Berlin, just 530 kilometers away, you are minutes away from a terrifying nuclear attack.
Professor Galeotti explained to the La Repubblica correspondent that “Putin for now is ‘bragging with its nuclear threats.
“For me, at this moment it is extremely unlikely that Russia will use them. At the recent Samamarcanda summit (of Asian powers) Explicit criticism of Putin was heard not only from China, but also from India and Turkey. It is a heavy deterrent, which makes the nuclear threat less credible.”
How is it that it has gotten so far? Professor Galeotti recalls that “Putin always wanted to settle the conflict with Ukraine with a quick win that reality bluntly denied.
“China and India do not want to prolong the conflict indefinitely. Ukraine was the largest exporter of corn to Beijing,” she said.
Now that he had to declare a partial mobilization, Putin take risks on the home front. “I don’t expect chaos or terrorism,” says Galeotti.
“By the way he is frustrated and worried, feel a great embarrassment. He hopes that in the end the West will tire of Ukraine, but that is unlikely, just as the protests and disorders that he sponsored in Europe after the blackmails he launched with energy supplies are unlikely to break out ”.
The British expert believes that Putin will be more and more difficult; that with the farce of the referendums in the occupied areas of Ukraine, the Russian president will get into a dead end, with less and less freedom to manoeuvre.
The interviewer of “La Repubblica” demanded if it is not likely that if Putin ordered a nuclear attack, even if it was only “tactical” in Ukraine, some of those around him they might rebel. “Exact. That’s why I don’t believe in such a scenario. Any important general could mutiny. Would the beginning of the end for Vladimir Putin.