A decisive month begins for the United States. And what happens between now and November 8 concerns us all.
The elections that day, which put at stake the 435 seats in the House of Representatives, a third of the Senate and 36 governorships, will define the immediate future of Trump and Trumpism.
They will also define the future of the Republican Party.
We will know if the “great old party” manages to shake off the tutelage of Donald Trump and his xenophobic, racist and anti-immigrant platform, or if it deepens its identity crisis that could leave it cornered as a party of whites, southerners, with no real chance of winning. the White House.
That is the reason why these midterm elections have become the most expensive in history, with an estimated bill of 9.3 billion dollars, as detailed last week by the El Financiero correspondent in Washington, José López Zamorano.
Republicans have lost the popular vote in most recent presidential elections, including wins by George Bush Jr and Donald Trump, because they have alienated growing swaths of foreign-born, suburban and independent voters.
If the Republicans manage to wrest control of Congress from the Democrats, they will turn Capitol Hill into the battlefield to put a stop to Joe Biden’s agenda and deny him any legislative victory heading into the November 2024 election.
On the contrary, if the Democrats retain control of the House and the Senate, they will maintain a platform that would allow them to add other legislative victories with a moderate agenda.
Recent district polls suggest that the Republicans have a better chance of regaining control of the lower house, since they only need to win five more seats than they already have.
In the Senate the perspective looks different, with the Democrats who would probably keep the majority, due to the selection of Republican candidates that we have indicated here as “unpresentable”.
There is the Trump factor and the future of that current of the Republican Party: they are the candidates financed by the former president who won the internal elections.
His strategy, discourse and creed is to polarize voters with extremist positions on issues such as weapons, abortion, migration and the “big lie” of the non-existent electoral fraud of 2020.
Another asset for the survival of Trumpism is found in the states. If his candidates win the governorships of Arizona and Pennsylvania, he would have the possibility of influencing the qualification of the presidential elections.
That would put the United States, in 2024, on the brink of a new constitutional crisis with incalculable consequences.
But the entire scenario could be turned upside down if a criminal prosecution against Trump by the Department of Justice materializes, not only in relation to his role in the putsch of January 6, 2021, but also for the potential commission of crimes of espionage and obstruction of justice, for the secret documents extracted from the White House.
The latter could disqualify him from any elected office for the rest of his life.
The last hearing of the legislative commission investigating the January 6 putsch was scheduled for last Wednesday, September 28, but was postponed due to Hurricane Ian. When it is carried out, in principle on the 13th of this month, it could be decisive because it will consolidate all the evidence against the then president and his main circle of collaborators.
There are a few reasons why this month is one of the most consequential for America in the modern era.