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The EU meets to prepare a firm response to threats from Russia

The president of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. / Archive

Brussels is working with secrecy on a battery of economic punishments that it will apply gradually and immediately if the aggression against Ukraine continues

Europe has promised a strong hand in the face of threats from Russia and, this Monday, the Twenty-seven will stage a firm position when discussing the European response to the escalation of military tensions in Ukraine. The meeting between the European foreign ministers will also include the participation by videoconference of the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, in a new example of close coordination with the US.

The EU is already working on a battery of economic and fiscal sanctions that, in the words of the President of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, will be “massive” and that would become effective the moment Moscow threatens the integrity of the borders of Ukraine.

The response, according to a high-ranking EU official, would be “quick, extremely clear and in a matter of days”, according to a high-ranking Brussels official. European leaders seem to be working on a gradual approach to sanctions and the European response would be different in the face of Russian cyber-attacks and provocations than in a conventional war scenario. The European bloc would thus calibrate the responses, studying the repercussions and effects of Russia’s actions.

It is still unknown what are the punishments that the EU debates and its elaboration has been carried out under the maximum secrecy. They reiterate, yes, that “all possible options” are being considered. The ultimate goal is that the threat of restrictions that hit the Russian economy hard and affect leaders in Putin’s circle will dissuade Moscow from continuing with the military path and force it to sit down at the dialogue table.

Basically, there do not seem to be differences within the EU, which seeks to reclaim its role in the conflict, after being relegated in the negotiations between Russia and the US in Geneva. Contacts between European leaders have multiplied in recent weeks. German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz and Prime Minister Boris Johnson recently met and, in recent days, Pedro Sánchez has held talks with the President of the European Council, Charles Michel; with the High Representative for Foreign Policy, Josep Borrell; and with the Secretary General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, Moncloa sources report.

In that round of contacts, several countries mentioned the option of removing Russia from the Swift international banking communication network, which would exclude the country’s companies from international revenue streams. This is a punishment that the US has already considered and that would short-circuit the Russian financial market.

At the same time, the Twenty-seven are preparing a contingent to deal with the economic consequences of cutting or restricting their trade relations with Moscow. However, Von der Leyen wanted to give a reassuring message and assured that the commercial alliance between the two powers “is more important for Russia than for Europe.”

The main European concern, however, lies in ensuring the arrival of natural gas in the face of possible supply cuts by Moscow. Currently, the continent imports more than 40% of its natural gas from Russia and a third passes through Ukraine. However, as reported by the Bloomberg agency, Washington is already studying the possibility of Qatar ensuring the supply of gas to Europe.

140,000 soldiers and a blacklist

Meanwhile, on the Ukrainian border, the military deployment of 140,000 Russian soldiers continues –according to EU estimates–, which raises fears of a new aggression against Kiev, after the annexation of Crimea in 2014. On that occasion, Brussels responded to the invasion with individual sanctions on people and organizations that actively participated in the conflict. Currently, 185 people and 48 entities are still on that blacklist whose assets are frozen. In addition, the prohibition to enter the EU weighs on them.

In the background is an issue that in Brussels they consider even more worrying, such as Russia’s aspiration to establish a sphere of influence and veto the future entry of neighboring countries such as Ukraine or Georgia into NATO. This represents a challenge for the EU itself, since the requirement could be extended to Member States such as Sweden or Finland. That is why Brussels sees this pulse as a challenge with repercussions on the international and security order established after the end of the Cold War and that, in addition, shakes the very foundations of the European Union.

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