The Union for the Homeland campaign command has just received a lengthy report they call “electoral forensic study”. It is neither more nor less than one “autopsy” of the votea surgical dissection by electoral circuit -this is how the voters of each district are grouped, based on the proximity of their homes- that examines the behavior of voters in the primaries on August 13.
In addition to determining winners and losers, the conduct of voters is the treasure -priceless- who always leave the STEP to both the ruling party and the opposition.
Based on the “forensic study”, in UxP they say that they will guide the electoral campaign with more precision.
“Now we know what happened in each circuit, if the people went more or less to vote, where the points that we lost in the presidential section of the ballot went,” explain sources from the ruling party.
These sources rule out that the study also serves to better support a “witch hunt” against the mayors of the Buenos Aires suburbs who had a much higher performance than Sergio Massa-Agustín Rossi in the primaries.
Some cases are emblematic: while the sum of the presidential formulas of Unión por la Patria -Massa plus John Grabois– obtained 32.12% of the votes in the Province, the mayor of Ensenada, the cristinista Mario Seccohe took out the 58.60 and the mayor of San Fernando, the massista John Andreotti-, 53.34%.
But there is a case that draws attention even from mayors who won by a greater differential than what Massa and Grabois got together. It is that of the mayor of San Vicente, the Peronist Nicholas Mantegazzawho garnered 63.78% of the votes, almost double than presidential candidates.
But close to Massa they insist on ruling out possible electoral maneuvers of the type “every man for himself” by the mayors.
“There are no suspicions, the differentials are explained by the efforts. Andreotti has excellent management,” he maintains in massismo. In the same line, in the UxP campaign command they add : “There was no animosity, there was no process induced by the mayors.”
That is not, however, what is said among Peronist mayors of the GBA of the First and Third Electoral Section consulted by Clarion.
“I must be one of the few who did not cut the ballot, all the boys played personal. they covered“, laughs a mayor. Beyond what he says, if the provisional scrutiny is reviewed, that mayor got some more points than the first section of the Unión por la Patria ballot.
“A mega operation to cut the ticket is coming, let’s see serial ticket cutters“says a communal chief. He says that special attention must be paid to a district governed by a dynasty. And another mayor adds: “Each one will take care of his farm.”
“I did not distribute the cut ticket. But without a doubt the majority did. It is impossible to get those differentials if it is not induced, if you do not give the neighbors the already cut ticket,” adds another mayor. Fact: in his district you can already see campaign posters with him, without Massa or the governor Axel Kicillof. Not even with the Unión por la Patria brand.
A mayor of the Third Section details that with the analysis of electoral behavior it is possible, for example, to go house to house to visit the neighbors who did not go to vote in the PASO.
But in the national UxP command they say that this is not the case and that this is not the purpose of the study.
“How are you going to ring someone’s doorbell to ask them why they didn’t go to vote for you? Most likely, he will get angry and end up voting against you,” says a leader with access to the “electoral forensic study.”
According to this leader, the study serves to better guide the campaign in somewhat more general terms. For example, if a certain area allows you to go looking for votes or it is directly a pointless effort.
Participation in the STEP was 69.62%. But in reality the “bag” in which the parties can seek votes is not 30% but less because historically the participation was between 70 and 80%.
“The question that must be asked now for the campaign is: is it convenient for us that more people go to vote in a certain place or would we be doing a gauchada to javier milei oh Patricia Bullrich”, raises a massist strategist. That’s something the forensic study is supposed to clarify.
Close to the UxP presidential candidate they insist that they have no suspicions of possible selfish behavior of the mayors in the October general election, but they admit that they are going to propose that the campaigns be carried out with full ballots.
“If a mayor took a good advantage in the STEP, his municipality is not in danger and what adds up to the entire ballot will benefit everyone. They can sacrifice two local points to help win the national.”they affirm in the campaign command of Unión por la Patria.
And they risk: “It is quite possible that the election will be nationalized and the court rate stabilized.”
Just in case, Malena Galmarinihead of AySA and wife of Massa, became more involved in the national campaign.
Galmarini’s role is above all to approach mayors – he has direct contact with the 27 districts in which the water and sanitation company operates – who were seen as too concerned with their own elections and did not so much militarize the complete UxP ballot.
“It’s not about looking for guilty, In addition, many were very busy with the PASO because they had internal rivals. But everyone must understand that we have to get to the ballotage”, points out a massismo operator, who as his only criticism observes that in some municipalities there were no parades of Massa Presidente.
Clarion moved the comment to two mayors. They agreed that there was a lack of electoral propaganda for the national UxP candidates in their territories, but they justified themselves: “No one received a peso for the national campaign.”
“It is true – they concede close to Massa – but they all received funds for works”.
The doubt Kicillof
The other question is Axel Kicillofwho obtained 36.41% of the votes in the PASO, 3.49% more than the combined candidates of Together for Change.
“It stayed in pole position. It is winnable but it does not mean that victory is assured”, observes a mayor who was last week at the meeting organized by the governor in La Plata and where he promised that more funds for works and food for social assistance would be lowered to the municipalities.
“Axel with the twine is very tight, but if he doesn’t do anything he can have a difficult time”, Observes another mayor who chose to miss the meeting. “Going is useless, neither in terms of management nor in political terms,” he says.