Sunday, October 2, 2022
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squeezing russia

Finally, after weeks of doubts and votes against by Hungary, the Council of the European Union has agreed to impose what may well be the most effective and painful sanction for Russia: a ban on imports of Russian oil by member countries. of the Union.

It is not a minor issue. It is, in fact, along with gas, the main international income of foreign currency for Russia. This is a fundamental blow to his economy, which may well unbalance Putin’s presumptuous security. Nothing, in my opinion, that it has not contemplated, measured and, eventually, replaced, if it increases its sales to China.

But that is still speculative.

For now, the European Union imposes a ban on 65% of crude oil imports from Russia, which represent around 1.6 million barrels per day, according to figures from the International Energy Agency for 2021.

If this materializes, Russia would stop receiving 160 to 180 million dollars a day, for the supply of crude oil to Europe.

For the union, the sacrifice is not minor either, since there are countries that depend above 70% and up to 95% on Russian oil.

It has taken weeks of discussions, substitution routes to cancel this supply and commitments from countries such as the United States, Saudi Arabia and Canada as possible alternative suppliers.

Now the energy war will begin, since Russia will have excess oil and will have to find outlets for it, one of which may be China.

The objective of the European Union is to tighten the financial belt of the government of Vladimir Putin and affect its ability to finance the conflict, which has already exceeded 100 days at a gigantic humanitarian cost. Russia has removed its mask and begun acts of brutality and human rights abuse not seen since World War II by the Nazis against the Jews.

Now, the Russian commandos in control of the Donbass area are filling trains heading east, full of Ukrainian citizens with unknown destinations to cities and regions of Russia, where concentration camps are even presumed to exist.

The bloodiest, most tyrannical and criminal Putin has shown his frustration over a conflict that turned out to be a nightmare for the Russian Armed Forces.

Faced with repeated calls from President Zelenski of Ukraine, the union has imposed, in addition to the ban on Russian oil, economic sanctions and international transfer of securities to different Russian banks. The Swift key for Sberbank – the largest Russian bank with international operations – has been cancelled, which implies, in fact, isolating the institution from any European or transcontinental operation.

More blockades of Russian radio and television stations with coverage in Europe have been put into effect, as well as individual sanctions against suspected Russian citizens accused of war crimes in Ukraine.

They finally listened to Zelensky, who had been asking Europe for stronger action for weeks.

The United States had already, for a month, initiated new packages of sanctions against Russia, in the same direction that the European Union is now doing.

Putin and his government have not yet reacted to these measures, but the West is certain of the serious economic impact that the weak Russian economy, so dependent on the resources obtained from its hydrocarbons, will suffer.

Mexico may be a country affected by this movement of tokens, since the oil surpluses that the country acquires in the form of gasoline, diesel and other fuels from the United States, will now be sent as a priority to Europe, which may eventually mean a decrease in refined supplies for our country, although, in President López Obrador’s speech, nothing will happen, since we are close to achieving energy autonomy, he says. We will know very soon, if the United States starts sending significant amounts of oil to Europe and our fuel supply is affected.

Perhaps it is this measure, much more than the weapons or resources offered to Ukraine, that becomes the catalyst for the conflict. The Russian economy is highly dependent on resources from the sale of its gas and oil; without them, to a large extent, the Russian economy will eventually collapse.

There are those in the United Kingdom who warn that this economic collapse could not necessarily bring down Putin, but strengthen him. We will see.

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