Isolated, uninformed and with a strong insurrection of its secret services and the Ministry of Defense, who believe that the Russian invasion of Ukraine was poorly planned and lost. This is the state in which President Vladimir Putin finds himself.
This follows from the British wiretaps of the HCHQ center in Chetelham, which has the capacity to intervene and listen to any conversation in the world. It is a vital strategic hub for NATO and its Australian, Canadian, American and New Zealand allies.
In a rare public appearance in Canberra on Wednesday night, Sir Jeremy Fleming, director of GCHQ, described how the Russian leader had “greatly misjudged” the capabilities of its army, the determination of the Ukrainian people, and the strength of the West’s response to its invasion.
Face a military insurrection
“President Putin is facing a growing military insurrection for his “personal war” in Ukraine, as his advisers lie to him about the failures of the campaign,” the British spy chief said last night.
The bodies of two Russian soldiers abandoned in Kharkov. Photo: AFP
Putin’s mistakes amounted to a “strategic miscalculation,” Fleming said in a speech at the Australian National University in Canberra. Putin “overestimated” the capacity of his army for a quick victory and the Russian soldiers are “lacking in weapons and morale”.
Fleming stated in his speech a list of problems faced by Russian forces, including low moralelogistical failures and the high number of casualties.
“His command and control is chaos”, said. “Although we believe that Putin’s advisers have afraid to tell the truth, the scope of these errors in judgment should be very clear to the regime. Has become his personal war. Putin overestimated his army’s ability to win a quick victory,” said Sir Jeremy Fleming.
Putin “overestimated” his army’s ability to win a quick victory and Russian soldiers are “lacking in weapons and morale”
British Intelligence Chief
Vladimir Putin set out to capture kyiv and topple its government with lightning speed when he launched his invasion of Ukraine, under the guise of a “special operation”.
Criticism of China
Fleming also criticized China for do not condemn the invasion Ukraine, arguing that President Xi has been exploiting Russia’s economic weaknesses to strengthen Beijing’s global reach. Putin is being toyed with, Fleming suggested, as China uses the crisis to “seize the opportunity” to buy cheap oil and gas.
Ben Wallace, the British defense secretary, agreed with him. He said in Norway, where he was observing the largest NATO exercise in the Arctic in three decades, that the “inevitable winner” of Russia’s failure was China. “It is no coincidence that Chinese support for Russia has been lukewarm at best,” he said. “The Russians are about to find out that they actually they are quite alone”.
Did the military betray him?
Five weeks into the war, there is mounting evidence that the Russian president is turning against his own spy chiefs and military advisersas their invasion falters.
According to declassified US intelligence reports, Putin feels he has been “misled” by military leaders who have failed to tell him how poorly his campaign in Ukraine is going.
A young Russian soldier killed in his trench, in Mala Rogan, Ukraine. Photo: AFP
Cracks in the facade of the Russian military began to appear shortly after the invasion, with photos and videos of Russian recruits captured by the Ukrainian military flooding social media. Many of them they openly questioned the logic of war and said they had not been told where they were going when they crossed the border into Ukraine.
In a move that underscored the Kremlin’s deep disappointment with its intelligence agencies, Colonel General Sergei Beseda, head of the FSB’s foreign intelligence branch, was fired and arrestedreportedly during the second week of the war.
He and his deputy were arrested in early March and placed under house arrest, on suspicion of corruption and providing false information about Ukraine, according to reports. The FSB has not confirmed the arrests.
Beseda was reportedly in charge of intelligence operations in Ukraine. Reports of his firing coincide with a widespread assessment that intelligence agencies have been feeding the Russian leader information that overestimated Moscow’s influence in Ukraine.
Ukrainian soldiers walk among the Russian military corps. Photo: AFP
A few days later, the Russian media reported on the dismissal of General Roman Gavrilov, deputy head of the National Guard, who used to serve in Putin’s security detail.
Gavrilov, deputy head of the National Guard, would have been fired by Vladimir Putin. However, Christo Grozev of Bellingcat’s open source intelligence team cited sources saying that General Gavrilov was arrested for “waste of fuel” or for leaking military intelligence, which “led to loss of life.”
The National Guard has been fighting in Ukraine and reportedly has also suffered serious losses in his special forces.
Gavrilov’s boss, Viktor Zolotov, has kept a low profile after becoming the first senior official to admit in the second week of the war that the invasion it was taking longer than expected. There would be 8 generals fired by Putin.
The cracks between Putin – a career intelligence agent – and his spy chiefs were exposed two days before the start of the war, when he criticized and publicly humiliated Sergei Naryshkinhead of the SVR foreign intelligence agency, in a televised discussion.
Sir Fleming and the Americans
US officials believe that President Putin I was not aware that they will be sent recruits to fight or how many died of them.
The intelligence, shared with British espionage agencies, has indicated that “Russian troops refused to carry out orders, sabotaged their equipment and They accidentally shot down their own plane..
US officials in Washington agreed that Putin “did not even know that his army was using and losing recruits, showing a clear break in the flow of accurate information”.
“We have information that Putin felt cheated by the Russian military. There is now persistent tension between Putin and the Russian Defense Ministry,” one of them said.
The defense minister has been missing since March 11 and directs the war from a bunker 1,000 meters from the Kremlin. It is believed that Putin lives between Moscow and Sochiwhere he has his imposing residence and nuclear bunker.
How is Putin informed?
John Kirby, the Pentagon spokesman, said: “If Putin is not fully informed of how badly he is doing, How are your negotiators going to reach an agreement? The other thing is that you don’t know how a leader like that is going to react to bad news. It’s puzzling,” he explained.
This Thursday Putin spoke with the Italian Mario Draghi and said that “there were no conditions yet” for the peace negotiations in Istanbul, which will resume next week.
The problem is where to believe the word of Putin and his military, when they commit to ceasefires or withdrawals.
A “confidence gesture” after the substantial peace negotiations in Istanbul was the decision of the Russian military to withdraw from the suburbs of kyiv. They were bombarded again all night. The Russian line of command it is chaotic and nobody knows who has the last word.
Russian forces have been regrouping in Belarus after the Kremlin said it would limit its invasion to focus on the “liberation” of Donbas in the east.
It is believed that some 15,000 Russian soldiers died in a month’s war. Experts at Chatham House in London and at the British Ministry of Defense assess that the Russians “they are going to regroup” and “a second stage of the war” begins, with a probable amphibious landing in Odessa, in the vicinity of which the Russian fleet is deployed.
Russia has cruise missiles, which he is using to attack western Ukraine, kyiv and even Mariupol, the martyr city, which he launches from the Black Sea or Russia itself. As well has mined the black sea, which will make it difficult for ships with cereals produced by Ukraine to leave. They can drop mines from planes, in a procedure internationally illegal.
Russian defectors are added day by day. They have no working weapons, no ammunition, no food, nor who fixes their tanks or armored. Not even good maps for moving in and out of ambush with Ukrainian forces, according to foreign volunteers, who are part of the international legions that have come to Ukraine to fight.
Some accept the offer of trade in your tank for $7,500they take the Ukrainian nationality, an apartment, a television and to be able to talk with their family. They are mostly conscripts.
Others are still fighting but have changed sides. The deserters have joined the Ukrainian army, in a new “legion” of volunteers. Images of Russian soldiers learning to use anti-tank weapons were shared on the Telegram messaging app on Wednesday.
Yet Putin’s approval rating in Russia has risen 12 percentage points since the war began, according to Russia’s last remaining independent pollster. The Levada Center found that the 83 percent of Russians supported the presidentcompared to 71 percent in February and 69 percent in January.
In Ukraine, the Russian Defense Ministry announced a ceasefire in the besieged city of Mariupol to allow the evacuation of civilians. It was scheduled to start this Thursday at 10 am Moscow time.
A group of youths, who were forcibly mobilized by the self-proclaimed pro-Kremlin authorities in the Donbas, posted a video on social media on Monday, complaining that they were being sent to fight in Ukraine. like cannon fodderwith rifles from the year 1940.