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Polarized elections?

There are five weeks left for the elections that will renew the governorships of the states of Mexico and Coahuila and, in addition to the trends in voting intentions that are showing in the polls, both contests seem quite polarized.

A couple of weeks ago I commented in this space, a graph derived from the national survey of The financial of March that showed the ideological competition space of the presidential figures towards 2024, which indicates that those who support the leading candidates of the two main political blocks have more extreme average positions than the rest.

The question now is whether or not this year’s elections also look that polarized. For review, I reproduced the same competition map for the June state races. The result indicates that the polarization is even more marked.

The map has two axes: the ideological identity of the left-right of the people interviewed, and the position for or against the fourth transformation. The location of those who support each of the candidates for state governments is based on the average in each axis.

The results show that the average voters of the Morenistas Delfina Gómez in Edomex and Armando Guadiana in Coahuila, are located in a very similar position, in the center-left space and with high support for the 4T.

At the other end of the map, the average voters of Alejandra del Moral and Manolo Jiménez, candidates of the alliances led by PAN and PRI, show center-right positions and greater rejection of the 4T, but they differ a little more from each other. . In the ideological axis they are very similar, but the followers of Jiménez in Coahuila express a greater rejection of the 4T.

The map shows that the average voters of the main candidacies are located at points far from each other, towards the poles of the axes, while the non-partisan electorates in each entity have a centrist position.

In Coahuila, the non-partisan voters gave a slight advantage to the Alianza Jiménez in March; but in the States of Mexico, Delfina Gómez had a broader advantage among that segment in that same month.

The inclination of the non-partisan electorate is a good sign to know who is more likely to win, although it must also be taken into account that non-partisan people are more volatile in their preferences and tend to vote in a lower proportion than partisans.

These data show that, indeed, we will see polarized elections, especially in the pro and anti 4T axis, but the so-called median voter, in this case the non-partisan segment, continues to be of the utmost importance to define the winner.

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