More than a year ago, when the bulk of politics pigeonholed Javier Milei As a phenomenon limited to Buenos Aires TV, a consulting firm decided to measure it in the favorite ring of Peronism: Buenos Aires suburbs. And there, the rising libertarian economist/panelist showed numbers that already spoke of a phenomenon with projection at the country level.
Now, confirmed his national stature and as President, the same pollster evaluated him again in the same place. AND the alert sounded in the opposite direction. The Milei numbers fell sharply in the 24 matches of Greater Buenos Airesperhaps confirming that the adjustment is sticking particularly in this territory.
The firm that carried out the study is CB Consulting Public Opinionone of those that best predicted the 2023 elections. Between Tuesday the 13th and Saturday the 17th of this month, it relieved 600 to 681 cases per municipality. He presented the results with a margin of error of 3% to 4%.
The comparison was made with the numbers that Milei had achieved in the same places in December, as soon as he assumed. The change is profound (for the worse): in the first survey, the President had more positive than negative image in 16 of the 24 districts; now, he’s barely three.
More samples? Milei worsened its numbers in all municipalities. On average, she lowered her positive image by 6.5 points each.
The 8 where it goes best
The ranking cream for Milei it is still in the North of the Conurbano. There are the three municipalities in which the President maintains image differential in favor.
Where he is doing best, curiously (or not so much) is in Tigre, the small district of Sergio Massa, his rival in the runoff. It is one of the only two districts where the President exceeds 50 positive image points. It reaches 52%, with 42.8% negative.
In any case, as explained, he also lost support in this party. His rating in favor was reduced by 5 points compared to December.
The other municipality with more than 50% positive was San Isidro. Reached 51.8%, 6.8 points less than in the previous measurement. The negative there was 43.2%.
The third game in which Milei obtained a positive balance was Vicente Lopez: +49.5% (fell 4.8 points) and - 44%. In all cases, 100% completed with the “ns/nc”.
The rest of the districts where it did better, but with more rejection than support, are:
San Fernando: 44.5% positive (fell 6.2 points) and 52.5% negative.
San Miguel: + 42.5% (fell 6.7) and - 51.6%.
Ituzaingó: + 42.1% (down 6.5) and - 53%.
San Martin: +42% (fell 7.7) and - 52.7%.
February 3rd: + 41.1% (fell 7.4) and - 51.2%.
The 8 worst
If the top part of the Milei image table in the GBA is dominated by the municipalities of the North, The one below is covered by the neighborhoods of the South (and part of the West), where Peronism is usually stronger. Including La Matanza, a province in itself.
In all these districts, the President was left with less than 40 positive points. And in one, Admiral Brownwhere it was worst, exceeded 60 negative.
Here is the complete list of “the 8 worst”, where the declines in the positive image ranged between 5.5 and 8 points compared to December.
Lomas de zamora: +38.2% (fell 7.2 points) and - 56.7%.
Berazategui: +37.7% (fell 6.2) and - 55.9%.
The slaughter: +37.5% (down 6.5) and - 56.6%.
Lanus: +37.5% (down 5.5) and - 58%.
Dark: +36.9% (down 8) and - 58%.
Argentine Falklands: +36% (fell 6.9) and - 59%.
Avellaneda: +33.9% (fell 6.4) and - 59.8%.
Admiral Brown: +33.5% (down 7.5) and - 61.2%.
The middle 8
Finally, as part of the statistical sandwich, there are 8 municipalities in which the President has a very even imagearound 39/41 points positive and 52/56 negative.
Hurlingham: + 40.9% (fell 6.6) and - 52.3%.
Hummock: + 40.7% (fell 7.9) and - 54.5%.
Merlo: + 40.1% (fell 6.1) and - 53.3%.
Ezeiza: +39.5% (fell 4.8) and - 54%.
Esteban Echeverria: +39.3% (fell 6.2) and - 55.3%.
Jose C. Paz: +39.1% (down 7.5) and - 55.8%.
Quilmes: +39% (fell 5.8) and - 56.3%.
Florencio Varela: +38.8% (down 6) and - 54.7%.
