like this, not even in dreams

A group of powerful businessmen disbursed a seven-figure check to be enlightened on the route they must follow so that the one who President Andrés Manuel López Obrador chooses as his successor or in the still remote case that it is not her, but him, not win the election in 2024. People who knew his reaction after the presentation of the magic formula say that they were happy, enthusiastic and convinced of the way forward. They did not receive a dirty war strategy, or clandestine financing for the opposition, or the profile and name of the person who could have the candidacy. What makes them think about the defeat of López Obrador next year is that young people participate in the vote. The key is “credentialing”.

A 37-page Power Point entitled We see ourselves participating is the reason for their joy, after having had a revelation –although the data they saw was public, from INE and INEGI–, and which now illuminates their tunnel. First of all, a statistic: young people between 18 and 39 years old reach 50 percent of the nominal list, but they are the ones who participate the least electorally. Those who participate the most, as those who take the trouble to look at the surveys have known for years, are in the 65-69 age group, have lower levels of education and are eligible for social programs.

The group that aroused the political hope of several of the Mexican macpatos is because in the subgroup between 20 and 30 years old they are angry, frustrated and dissatisfied, which generates a greater polarization than adults, which is the name of the current game, binary discourses , bipolar vision and reasons subordinated to emotions, which López Obrador has escalated to higher levels of confrontation. They also include the 30 to 40-year-old group in their electoral target, which the study defines with a “more plural and balanced vision between good and bad”, where men are more ideological and receptive to issues of society and macroeconomics. , while women are more focused on issues related to purchasing power, quality of life, health, transportation and education.

There they are, the report suggests, the votes to end the lopezobradorismo. But for this, evoking the now very famous phrase turned into a mantra “It’s the economy stupid!”, by Jamer Carville, Bill Clinton’s strategist in the 1992 presidential campaign when he defeated President George HW Bush, the call to action, should be “it’s badging!”.

Registration affects participation, the study points out, which was seen in the last presidential elections. But apparently taking the results of 2018 as a subjective context and the way in which the President has been dividing society, consolidating his hard core of around 15 million voters – although he has already lost the other similar amount that gave him the great victory in the elections federals of 2021–, the approach is that in an environment of greater polarization, credentialing is the route to redefine what today seems manifest destiny, the victory of Morena, regardless of the candidate.

The credentialing proposal includes, in an important way, the updating of the INE credential, whose main reason for this, according to the study, is the lack of time for work. But it must be done, it is the urgent call, and it identifies the entities where the outdatedness is greater, apparently to start there: Quintana Roo (44.9 percent), Colima (35.8 percent), Nuevo León (30.7 percent), Jalisco (30.3 percent) and Chihuahua (29.7 percent). The last three occupy places 6, 3 and 10, respectively, in terms of size in the electoral roll; The remaining 12 identified by the study with the greatest outdated credentials are not in the block of entities that define a presidential election.

Of the target group posed by the study for their credentialing, only 11.4 percent of that more than 50 percent of young people who could go to the polls, some 6.8 million who “almost always vote,” which would mean that even if everyone voted for a single opposition candidate, the impact it would have on the computation would be approximately 3.5 percentage points, therefore, if one sees the trend in the margins that Morena has obtained in the elections where she has won –almost all–, the difference is not it would make a difference.

The study was music to their ears –74 percent of small and medium-sized entrepreneurs have a good social perception–, and they welcomed the recommendations to encourage participation: do not discount the day so they can go to process the credential of voter -the deadline to do so is January 31 of next year-, that the human resources departments help them make the appointments, and that they give incentives for those who have the current INE with the updated address.

voila! With this, López Obrador and his caps They will go into retirement together. The formula seems simple, but it is still an interesting and provocative working hypothesis that, however, is insufficient. It ignores, for example, the inability of the opposition parties to encourage their militants to vote, as was seen in the recent elections in the State of Mexico. Nor does it address, not even theoretically, what profile antilopezobradorismo could capitalize on. It does not propose scenarios, nor does it explore the variables prospectively. The fact that they are not included does not mean that the study is poorly done; simply, that to have hope they need something comprehensive, deep, disruptive and innovative.

Are there answers today to those political-existential anxieties? Not on the horizon. But the macpatos could think of other ways to find a solution to their anxieties, such as telling their employee who runs the Va por México alliance, to stop thinking about their multi-member companies and open the game to identify who and how can take the anti-lopezobradoristas to the polls, because what they currently have on the table will surely lead them to defeat.