SUBSCRIBERS EXCLUSIVE
It is from the consultancy Opinaia. He measured floors and ceilings of voting intention, and a stage for the STEP.
A few years ago, while traveling in the interior, the Ecuadorian Jaime Duran Beard He explained to a group of journalists two basic elements that a presidential candidate must have. “A knowledge greater than 90% throughout the country and less than 50% rejection“, said the star adviser of the PRO. A new election pollfacing the presidential 2023, brings the debate back to the surface. With a bad news for the Front of All: less than three months from the STEP, The “I would never vote” continues to grow to this officialdom.
The data comes in latest national poll that spread opinion. It is a pioneer consultancy in online measurements, already established in the world of politics, and whose client -among others- is the City Government.
Between May 14 and 22, the firm carried out a survey of 2,000 cases and presented the results with +/- 2.2% margin of error. Throughout the 30-page report, numbers appear that show what complicated that is the panorama for the Government and How is Javier Milei rising?.
As this newspaper already recounted in previous notes, the “I would never vote for him” it’s a key data thinking about a ballot: It is presumed that a candidate with a rejection of more than 50% could never win a second round, unless they compete against another candidate who also comes with this electoral Achilles heel.
Floors and ceilings by spaces
An interesting measurement that he has been doing opinion months ago is to evaluate the electoral floors and ceilings, not of the candidates but of the spaces. And that is where the deterioration of the “Frente de Todos” brand is clearly seen. For this reason, as he also advanced Clarion, changing the nomenclature is evaluated for this round of elections.
“Thinking about these political spaces for the 2023 presidential elections, Would you vote for them, could you vote for them, or would you never vote for them?“, says the consultant. And it goes through the filter to the ruling partyto Together for Change already the milei libertarians.
The coalition of Cristina Kirchner, Sergio Massa and Alberto Fernández has the worst combination: the safe vote reaches 11%, the probable vote 21% (which gives them a “ceiling” of 32%) and rejection at 67%. Regarding this last item, it is the worst record of the series. Last October it was at 62%, in December it went to 63%, in February of this year to 65% and now it has sunk two more points.
As to Together and the libertarians, they come even. The main opposition alliance has a 14% secure/floor vote, 40% probable (“ceiling” of 54%) and rejection of 46%. Milei’s force, meanwhile, is left with 19% sure vote, 36% probable (“ceiling” of 55%) and rejection of 45%.
The ruling party, also bad for PASO
The study then presents a classic picture of voting intention for the primaries on August 13, where some trends are also consolidated:
– Milei grows as the most voted.
– The ruling party disperses without Cristina and runs the risk of being left out of the ballot.
– Together they remain on top, by little, in this case with Patricia Bullrich on top of Horacio Rodríguez Larreta.
Put in numbers, the candidate libertarian arrives at 26%, which is enough for him, alone, to be second. Above, in the sum, surpasses it JxCwith 12% of Bullrich, 8% of larreta, 2% of Gerardo Morales, 2% of Facundo Manes, 1% of Elisa Carrió and 1% of Jose Luis Espert.
about the FdT is worrying: 20% overallby 8% of Axel Kicillof, 6% of Sergio Massa, 3% of Daniel Scioli, 2% of Peter’s Wado and 1% of John Grabois.
They complete, further away: Peronism not K with 6% (4% of Juan Schiaretti and 2% of Juan Manuel Urtubey), he left front with 3% (Nicholas del Caño 2% and Myriam Bregman1%), blank/null 4% and undecided 14%.
