Emmanuel Macron would he become a president “blade duck”, a “lame duck”, as the host of the White House is nicknamed in the United States when he finds himself without a majority in Congress? Its policy of “at the same time” may in fact not be able to be applied, as it risks giving rise to alternative obstruction by opposition groups. A priori, the pension reform and its lowering of the legal retirement age to 65 could be adopted with the support of the UDI and the Republicans. But will the right want to take on such an unpopular reform? Can the reduction of 7 billion euros in the contribution on the added value of companies (CVAE) be endorsed by local elected officials who complain of a loss of fiscal autonomy for communities?
Many decisive projects for the future of France, such as the renovation of the school, could also get bogged down in parliamentary paralysis. The Nupes does not want to hear about more autonomy for the establishments. Here again, the attitude of the Republicans will be decisive in advancing the case. The increase in the remuneration of professors could be a consensus. On the other hand, the reform of vocational high schools to bring them closer to the needs of the labor market has lost ground. Just like the 10 billion euros in savings planned for local authorities…
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Purchasing power lowest common denominator
Will Macron further advance the left leg of his program? It is likely that nothing will ever be good enough for Nupes and especially for its most numerous group, La France insoumise. The payment at source of social benefits risks being overwhelmed by the difficulty of financing this social measure which should cost several billion euros.
The law on purchasing power promised by the president for the beginning of July could constitute the lowest common denominator. Its scope is likely to be extended and it will cost even more than expected, with no opposition party, including Les Républicains, willing to accept being perceived as the one responsible for a loss of power for purchase of the French. As the Russian war in Ukraine begins to seriously weigh on the French economy, the budgetary trajectory could still slip
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