One good and one bad for President López Obrador.
The correct. In the January survey applied by El Financiero, it obtained 60 percent approvala figure that is very positive since it is more than six points above of the percentage that voted for him in the elections.
The bad. down seven points compared to the approval he had obtained in December. This is the most significant drop for a single month since the second quarter of 2019.
López Obrador’s detractors think that this important change means something comparable to what happened to Enrique Peña Nieto in the last months of 2014, after the events in Ayotzinapa and the White House event.
The president’s defenders think that this is a fact that simply brings presidential approval in line with last year’s level, after the very good months of the last quarter, but they do not think it is a change in trend.
For now, we do not know what this result means in terms of presidential approval.
But what is a fact is that the figures failed to incorporate the effect of the revelation of the house in which he lives Jose Ramon Lopez Beltran.
If these developments will have an impact on presidential approval, they will be reflected in next month’s data.
Nor did they incorporate the poor economic results that the INEGI announced last Monday, which, eventually, will also be expressed in the next reading.
There are questions, but, based on the evidence available to date, it is more feasible that the presidential approval lose additional points in February.
But, you have to be clear. We still do not know if this will be a trend or if in March support for President López Obrador could rebound.
For that reason, both the opposition and supporters of AMLO are going to try to take advantage of political events that will happen in the following weeks.
As I have told you on many occasions, we are in a political environment in which desires are confused with facts.
AMLO’s supporters assume that the economic, political and social circumstances will continue to provide a base of support for the president. Can be.
In the survey published yesterday, it can be seen that the two main reasons for support are the social programs of the president, and his own figure.
And those aspects may not change.
AMLO’s detractors will see in the events of the first month of the year a qualitative change that will lead to lower presidential approval.
I’m not sure that’s the case. But the facts are those that leave their mark and it could be the case.
The circumstances of 2022 will be very different from those of previous years.
In 2020 and 2021, a good part of the political issues were referred, directly or indirectly, to the pandemic.
This year – unless there is a surprise, always possible – covid will no longer be the dominant factor. It will be the domestic political issues or those of the international financial sphere or the geopolitical aspects, which set the tone.
Returning to the poll, starting the second half of a six-year term with 60 percent approval is a great thing for President López Obrador.
If you take advantage of it, it’s an excellent platform to start the last two years and nine months of his mandate.
If it doesn’t and continues to move in a direction in which it breaks more and more with the various sectors of society, may be setting the table for the opposition.
Of course, for someone to take advantage of that circumstance, there must be someone who sits on it.
And so far, the government’s fortune is that most of the characters who have the potential to be at that table prefer “not to sit.”
So, this complex picture of February, with everything and the “house in Houston”, could remain mere anecdotes.